We prepared a survey of selected members of the Forum 2000 community on the possible future development of democracy in today’s complex situation. Our question was:
In your view, what are the greatest challenges, threats, and opportunities for democracy in the coming year?
Romina Bandura
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, USA
J. Michael Cole
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow, Global Taiwan Institute, Canada/Taiwan
Larry Diamond
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow, professor, Freeman Spogli Institute, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, USA
Hasler Iglesias
Member of the ICDR, board member, Voluntad Popular, Venezuela/Spain
Garry Kasparov
Member of the ICDR, chair, Human Rights Foundation, Russia/USA
Amichai Magen
Member of the ICDR, senior research scholar, Stanford University, Israel/USA
Carlos Malamud
Member of DSLA, senior analyst, Royal Elcano Institute, Argentina/Spain
Penda Mbow
Member of Forum 2000's Program Council, ICDR and DSA, president, Mouvement Citoyen, Senegal
Michael McFaul
Speaker at the 28th Forum 2000 Conference, Stanford University professor and former US ambassador to Moscow, USA
Mulle Musau
Member of DSA, regional coordinator, East and Horn of Africa Election Observation Network, Kenya
Ghia Nodia
Member of the ICDR, chair, Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Georgia
Richard Youngs
Member of Forum 2000's Program Council and ICDR, senior fellow, Carnegie Europe, United Kingdom
Romina Bandura
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies, USA
The greatest threat is a bad peace plan for Ukraine. The greatest challenge is the use of AI to further spread misinformation. And the greatest opportunity may be that Venezuela’s Maduro regime is beginning to crumble (even if that may sound politically incorrect).
J. Michael Cole
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow, Global Taiwan Institute, Canada/Taiwan
It is clear to me that a US government that seemingly no longer emphasizes the defense of liberal-democratic principles will have a substantial impact on global democracy. It will be a while yet before new leadership emerges that assumes responsibility for spearheading the defense of those principles at the global level. The fact that this shift occurs just as revisionist, authoritarian powers such as Russia and China are joining forces with likeminded regimes to undermine the liberal-democratic order with the aim of creating an international order that is more hospitable to their political systems is particularly concerning. Add to this signs that the Trump administration intends to weaken liberal-democratic governments in Europe, and we're in for a period of serious trouble. I believe this is a great opportunity for countries like Germany, Japan, and a handful of others to step up and take the lead in defending, and improving upon, the prevailing order.
Larry Diamond
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow, professor, Freeman Spogli Institute, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, USA
The greatest opportunities are to help bring about a transition to democracy in Venezuela, to ensure that Hungary’s parliamentary elections in April are free and fair (and to severely sanction the Orban government if he rigs the election); to support the democratic civic movement in Serbia in its campaign for an end to authoritarian rule; and the probable election victory (again) of the democratic opposition in Thailand. Other openings could emerge, and Syria is also an opportunity to support a long-term transition to more lawful and accountable government. But the above four could represent significant transitions to democracy, and other democracies should treat them as priorities for support and engagement. The greatest challenges are Russian military aggression and political and information warfare; PRC penetration of democracies through various forms of sharp power projection and global propaganda against democracy; and the retreat of the Western democracies from liberal democracy and from democracy promotion.
Hasler Iglesias
Member of the ICDR, board member, Voluntad Popular, Venezuela/Spain
Democracy is under attack from every flank. From the inside, the increasing polarization, the rise of extremism, and the dismantling of democratic culture based on systems that "deliver" (for instance, El Salvador providing security, and China and its apparent technological development), but at the expense of human rights, liberties, and the rule of law. All of these phenomena leverage on infoxication, disinformation, and misinformation, which isolate individuals, reinforce people's own beliefs, limit discussion and exchange with others, and set the ground for radicalization. From the outside, the unconventional attacks of authoritarian regimes to undermine democracies are a major threat. Some examples include Russian interference in European and American politics, as well as the intrusion of Chinese investment in virtually all regions. Sometimes these attacks occur in an articulated way, such as the Group of São Paulo/Puebla in Latin America. They leverage tools such as misinformation, the financing of "civil society" groups, and the promotion of public agitation, such as in Chile under Piñera and Colombia under Duque. The international order has also shown its ineffectiveness when trying to contain authoritarianism, promote democracy, and defend human rights. The military invasion of Ukraine, the crisis in Gaza, the war in South Sudan, and the persistent emergency in Venezuela are examples of how the "international community" has proven rather impotent. I believe a deep reengineering of the world order is needed, but it is unclear upon what balance of forces it would be built.
Opportunities are precisely the opposite of these threats and challenges. If authoritarian regimes support and learn from each other, democracies should do the same. Initiatives such as the "Summit of Democracies" should continue and go beyond being communicational events, becoming key strategic alliances that actually act to counter the rise of authoritarianism. Also, more effective regulations on fake news and the institutionalization of news verification should be put in place. While democracies remain disorganized and distracted, authoritarianisms continue to incarcerate, assassinate, and suppress dissent in their countries, and at the same time, strengthen their allies in Western democracies, who act as Trojan horses.
Garry Kasparov
Member of the ICDR, chair, Human Rights Foundation, Russia/USA
The greatest challenge facing democracy today is the complete inadequacy of the global institutions that were designed to safeguard and promote it. The world's authoritarians are taking advantage of this decay to promote their alternative vision, turning back the clock on decades of progress. I grew up being taught that transparency of information was the antidote to totalitarianism, but unfortunately, we have not seen that play out. Instead, technological progress has become an additional weapon for the enemies of freedom, used more effectively for propaganda than for peace. The greatest opportunity for democracy, in light of all this, is the recommitment of the West to building an overarching framework to protect its core values – one that recognizes that we are in a time of war, and that ensuring the continuation of the democratic world order in the face of existential threats requires extraordinary measures.
Amichai Magen
Member of the ICDR, senior research scholar, Stanford University, Israel/USA
Liberal democracy faces three main simultaneous, and related, challenges. First, after three generations of unprecedented prosperity and peace brought about by liberal democracy – across much of what was until recently called "the free world" – prosperity and peace are taken for granted and their dependence on liberal values has largely been forgotten. Liberal democracy is not the norm when it comes to human modes of governance. It is a miraculous ecosystem requiring elite and popular commitment to the values and institutions that make liberal democracy possible. We are now suffering the consequences of a colossal failure to transmit pro-democracy political knowledge from one generation to the next. Democracy is dying from neglect – the result of historical ignorance, decadence, and boredom within the free world itself. Second, and related, commitment to liberal democracy has eroded due to the loss of popular confidence in its ability to generate and implement solutions to society's main challenges. The young, in particular, are increasingly frustrated with what they perceive (rightly or wrongly) to be a system that has failed them economically and that provides them little hope for the future. They are therefore increasingly willing to "kick the system in the face." This loss of trust leads to acceptance, and increasingly normalization, of populist and authoritarian alternatives to democracy. Last but not least, anti-liberal, anti-Western, and anti-Semitic ideologies, movements, and states – from the radical-left to radical Islam, China, Iran, Russia, North Korea, and Venezuela – are empowered by the first two challenges to liberal democracy. What were previously relatively weak or marginalized pernicious actors are gaining momentum and influence, partly through the geopolitical rise of China, and partly through their hijacking of the institutions and technologies created by liberalism and made available to democracy's enemies. Unless liberal democracy regains its internal coherence, generates superior solution-structures to 21st century challenges, and reestablishes geopolitical dominance, it will continue to erode and weaken.
Carlos Malamud
Member of DSLA, senior analyst, Royal Elcano Institute, Argentina/Spain
The advances of illiberalism and nationalist, xenophobic populism are a reality in much of the world, alongside the consolidation of several authoritarian or dictatorial governments. Their attempts to coordinate action on a global scale and even to finance extremist movements, beyond their self-proclaimed anti-globalism, represent a serious threat to liberal democracies and their institutions. Initiatives such as the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), closely aligned with MAGA, reflect this reality. There are other threats linked to the political and economic context, to social perceptions, and to a widespread sense of frustration with politics and with the promises made by political leaders. These include issues such as citizen security, organized crime and drug trafficking, migration, corruption, the poor state of public services, and the high cost of housing. The need to articulate a message in defense of individual freedoms (not only freedom of expression), human rights, the balance of powers – in short, the rule of law – will be an opportunity for democrats to regain the initiative.
Penda Mbow
Member of Forum 2000's Program Council, ICDR and DSA, president, Mouvement Citoyen, Senegal
The most important threats are from my point of view: the rise of populism and the lack of a culture of democracy. Confusion between political leadership and business is really a danger for the stability of the world and peace. Champions of democracy are less powerful, having no financial support to develop their agenda. Of course, they are also facing repression, violence, prison, and disappearance. Being an oppositionist in Africa, for example, is a kind of suicide. For 2026, we hope we will have more peace all around the world. Western countries will engage to support respect for democracy.
Michael McFaul
Speaker at the 28th Forum 2000 Conference, Stanford University professor and former US ambassador to Moscow, USA
Russian victory in Ukraine.
Mulle Musau
Member of DSA, regional coordinator, East and Horn of Africa Election Observation Network, Kenya
The greatest challenge to democracy at the moment is the perceived lack of delivery of democratically elected governments, especially in the south. This has resulted in youth-inspired protests and revolutions that would want to change the status quo. In respect to threats, a number of hybrid threats which include authoritarianism and aggression from countries such as Russia, disinformation and related AI threats, as well as unmitigated illicit financial flows will pose a major risk to democratic countries worldwide. Opportunities lie in supporting resilience efforts by citizens, organized platforms such as Forum 2000 and progressive democracies to provide a shield against this assault on democracy.
Ghia Nodia
Member of the ICDR, chair, Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, Georgia
I expect the coming year to be extremely challenging. The greatest threat may be related to Ukraine, where there is a prospect of a settlement favoring an autocratic aggressor at the expense of a much more democratic Ukraine. This may reassure autocrats around the world. On the other hand, I hope for some success stories of democratic renewal – in Hungary, for instance? I also hope the resilience and bravery of supporters of democracy in my country, Georgia, will bear fruit.
Richard Youngs
Member of Forum 2000's Program Council and ICDR, senior fellow, Carnegie Europe, United Kingdom
With democracy facing so many threats, it is difficult to select only one or two as the main causes for concern. Of course, at the most overarching level, all debates about democracy have been upended by the world's most powerful democracy now acting as a direct threat to liberal norms in many countries. Yet there are other, pervasive challenges of a second order within countries around the world in actually getting the basic practices of democracy working well. One really salient issue that is perhaps both a challenge and opportunity is to help translate the enormous energy evident in pro-democratic mobilizations into effective and focused reform processes.
The views expressed in these works are the responsibility of its authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Forum 2000 Foundation or its staff.
