Armenia is preparing for parliamentary elections which will have very important consequences not only for the country’s democratization process but also broader geopolitical context. We asked members of our network to share their perspectives.
Armen Grigoryan
Member of the ICDR, president of the Centre for Policy Studies, Armenia
Batu Kutelia
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute and former ambassador to the United States, Georgia
Leila Alieva
Member of the ICDR, Associate of Russian and East European Studies at Oxford University, Azerbaijan
Armen Grigoryan
Member of the ICDR, president of the Centre for Policy Studies, Armenia
“The upcoming elections will determine whether Armenia's attempts to diversify its international relations and economy can continue, or whether the country risks backsliding into the role of Russia's puppet. The threat of foreign malign influence, acknowledged by Armenian officials, experts, and international partners alike, particularly applies to this context.
While the EU is going to set up a civilian expert team for a two-year mission to improve the response to cyber-attacks, information manipulation and interference, as well as illicit financial flows, Russian sources and some Armenian political actors have been vilifying the EU’s planned assistance. They oppose the ongoing visa liberalization dialogue and other aspects of EU cooperation, as well as some actions of the Armenian government itself – such as the refusal to accept ‘humanitarian aid’ from the Russia-based non-governmental association Evrazia (associated with Ilan Shor and previously involved in election meddling in Moldova), and the arrest of several people associated with a political movement founded by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan on vote-buying charges.
Vladimir Putin has personally intervened in promotion of the pro-Russian political forces, while Russia restricted the import of some Armenian products. There are also indications that in case of weak performance of pro-Russian opposition, a propaganda campaign and staged protests aiming to delegitimize the election results could be expected.”
Batu Kutelia
Member of the ICDR, senior fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute and former ambassador to the United States, Georgia
„Armenia’s 2026 elections may become one of the most geopolitically consequential votes in the South Caucasus. The real issue is not simply who governs Armenia, but what strategic identity the country — and potentially the region — chooses for the next decade.
If the elections consolidate the peace process, gradual normalization with neighbors, and a more sovereign democratic statecraft, the South Caucasus could finally begin shifting from a zone of frozen conflicts and Russian coercive influence toward a more connected Black Sea–Central Asia geopolitical corridor. It is thus important to follow what happens after the elections.
The key thing to watch is whether external actors — especially through Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference (FIMI) campaigns, financial influence, polarization around constitutional reform, and Russia’s remaining military leverage — succeed in turning Armenia’s internal debate into another battleground of geopolitical paralysis.
Georgia's democratic backsliding and state capture has already shown that democratic momentum and Western orientation are not irreversible when the West becomes strategically absent or inconsistent.
In short - it's the South Caucasus acquiring common geopolitical identity and deciding whether the region's quiet pivot away from Russia and toward a Western-anchored peace becomes irreversible, or just another Georgia-style false dawn that will eventually give Moscow a second chance it doesn't deserve“.
Leila Alieva
Member of the ICDR, Associate of Russian and East European Studies at Oxford University, Azerbaijan
“Re-election of Pashinyan is the most favorable outcome for the future of peace and connectivity projects. He is the only figure in Armenia's political spectrum who combines a commitment to the democratic agenda and Western integration with a dedication to peaceful regional relations, overcoming traditional 'enemy images' and breaking historical dependence on Russia. His victory would be crucial for the prospects of peace and for limiting Russian influence in the region.
Viktoria Avakova
Member of the ICDR, Health and Anti-trafficking project coordinator at UMCOR-NGO, Armenia
"Freedom is always at stake, and the Armenian people know its cost very well as they endured war and the loss of territory and lives. The choice that Armenian citizens make during the upcoming parliamentary elections will shape our future, determining whether we will enjoy freedom and democracy or live under pressure, fear, and stagnation. I believe that, despite the complex situation both within Armenia and in the region, Armenian people have the wisdom, strength, and courage necessary to make a right decision untainted by external influences, threats, or false promises and will choose the future they dream of for themselves, for their loved ones, and for the prosperity of our beautiful country."
Leyla Yunus
Member of the ICDR, Founding Director of Institute for Peace and Democracy, Azerbaijan
“For the first time, elections in Armenia are receiving wide attention in Azerbaijan. There is a general understanding that these elections will affect not only the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, but also the political situation across the entire region. Pashinyan's victory would be a defeat for Russia and a chance for the peoples of the South Caucasus to begin a real process of distancing themselves from Russia.
Conversely, a defeat for Pashinyan would significantly strengthen Russia’s role not only in Armenia but across the region, creating serious problems both for the Armenian–Azerbaijani peace process and, more broadly, for relations between the two peoples and countries.”
The views expressed in these works are the responsibility of its authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Forum 2000 Foundation or its staff.
