“The ongoing protests are probably the main factor that still impedes the Georgian Dream government from turning the country into a full autocracy,” writes ICDR member and director of the International School for Caucasus Studies, Ghia Nodia, for the Forum 2000 Bulletin.
Ghia Nodia
A member of the ICDR and director of the International School for Caucasus Studies at Ilia State University, Georgia
Georgians have kept protesting in the streets every single day since November 28 last year. Initially, rallies were huge; later, the numbers dwindled, though on some days, fairly large crowds still gather. This mostly happens in the center of the capital, Tbilisi, though sometimes people take it to the streets in other towns as well.
What are they protesting against? People are refusing to recognize the official results of the October 2024 parliamentary elections, which they believe the opposition won. But the critical trigger was an open abandonment of the policy of European integration, which is presumed to imply joining Russia’s camp – though the Georgian Dream (GD) government denies this. This makes the protests similar to the 2013-14 Euromaidan movement in Ukraine. In parallel with changing Georgia’s foreign political orientation, the government is busy destroying the country’s vibrant civil society, including opposition parties, independent media, and civic organizations (though it is not there yet).
The authorities have tried many things to quell the protests: beatings, arrests, hefty fines, and purging the civil service. But this has not helped: people won’t stop.
Nobody is asking the incumbent government to change its policy – everybody understands that this is hopeless. The chief demand is to hold fresh parliamentary elections under fair conditions; protesters are also calling for the release of political prisoners whose number is swelling by the day.
Can the protesters win? In the first days or weeks, one might have hoped for a quick success. However, the magnitude of the protests proved insufficient for that. One reason may be that GD still maintains sizeable support – supposedly around a third of the electorate. Its main trump card is its image as the guarantor of peace with Russia. It also presents itself as a socially conservative force and enjoys the strong support of the Georgian Orthodox Church, an influential social actor. Disarray within the opposition ranks does not help the credibility of the protest movement either.
Many feel weariness and disappointment at the lack of conspicuous results. It is only natural that fewer people keep coming. It is the continuing persistence of the protesters that has to be explained. If there is no light at the end of the tunnel yet, what’s the point of continuing to go to rallies every day?
People refuse to give up because there is nothing else left to do. The ongoing protests are probably the main factor that still impedes the Georgian Dream government from turning the country into a full autocracy. The question is often asked: if the government stays, will Georgia become like Aleksandr Lukashenko’s Belarus? The question is still open, but the answer depends on the level of people’s resistance (not only in the streets). Georgian civil society may not be strong enough to get rid of an openly autocratic pro-Russian regime, but it still has the resources, resolve, and grit to show that people won’t accept going back to Russia.
While the government refuses to cede any ground to avoid showing weakness, its position is shaky too. Complete isolation from the West and sanctions against key government figures are painful. Normalizing relations with the West was one of the chief promises that GD made to its remaining supporters, as they don't want their country to sever ties with the West and become Russia’s satellite either. Ongoing internal purges within the government show some nervousness and anxiety. GD is not about to implode – but nothing is final yet.
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