This year, BRICS expanded to 10 members, grouping around 40% of the world’s population and economy. “This has sparked a special interest in the West, with some labeling the group as a threat to the current liberal world order. For instance, US President Donald Trump has threatened it with 100% tariffs. However, how accurate is this threat, and what does it threaten?,” writes Max Povse, a member of DSLA.
Max Povse
Member of DSLA, researcher, European University Institute, Italy/Argentine
This year, BRICS expanded to 10 members, grouping around 40% of the world’s population and economy. This has sparked a special interest in the West, with some labeling the group as a threat to the current liberal world order. For instance, US President Donald Trump has threatened it with 100% tariffs. However, how accurate is this threat, and what does it threaten?
The first point is that, for any actor to constitute a credible threat, it must be robust and coordinated enough to achieve it. This is what the Allied nations were like in the first years of the post-WWII period when they created the UN system. BRICS, in contraposition, is a loose collection of countries without a clear goal, with no common relevant institutions besides the New Development Bank and no undisputed leadership. Moreover, its two biggest member countries, India and China, are engaged in bitter confrontations.
In the second place, what would BRICS target with the size of its economies? Competing payment mechanisms such as BRICS Pay or the rise in the global usage of the yuan can hardly pose any economic threat to the West; if anything, it should be promoted in the spirit of the free market. In this sense, President Trump’s tariffs are not targeted exclusively at BRICS; instead, they are part of a larger strategy to close the American economy to the world, including traditional Western allies.
Thirdly, the most credible threat is a cultural one based on soft power attacks. China is notorious for using its network of Confucius Institutes, “Wolf Warrior” diplomacy, corporate blackmail, and secret police stations, among other tactics, to undermine Western countries’ stability. Russia does its part through disinformation operations and authoritarian resilience building. However, India is a democracy with strong ties—even military—to the West, and Brazil is a Western country per se. Even the new additions, such as the UAE and Indonesia, are relatively close to the West and balance between the Sino-Russian and Euroatlantic axes.
In this sense, BRICS is not a threat to the West. Most of its members are long-term committed partners of Western countries and have democratic regimes. In contrast, China and Russia try to weaponize the group to impose their illiberal agendas. Consequently, Western leaders should focus less on fearing multilateralism and commit more seriously to isolating and destabilizing the Xiist and Putinist regimes that constitute the true menace to Western values.
The views expressed in these works are the responsibility of its authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Forum 2000 Foundation or its staff.
